Recent Western reports suggest that the United States has redirected military aid, originally intended for Niger, to Ghana, Benin, and Côte d'Ivoire. This shift in resource allocation comes in the wake of deteriorating relations between Washington and Niamey, culminating in the United States' withdrawal of its forces from Niger. These developments have sparked widespread speculation about whether these moves signal a new American strategy aimed at bolstering its military presence in West Africa.

Military Actions

The U.S. has recently undertaken significant military maneuvers in West Africa, as outlined below:

1- Military aid:

Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, and Benin have agreed to receive military assistance from the United States, primarily in the form of American-made armored vehicles. These vehicles were initially allocated to Niger but were redirected following escalating tensions with the authorities in Niamey. The shift occurred after a military coup ousted Niger's president, Mohamed Bazoum, a key Western ally, especially for the U.S., in the Sahel region. In response to the coup, the current military junta in Niamey adopted an anti-Western stance, leading to the withdrawal of U.S. and French troops from the country in August 2024.

Building on this development, a report from Africa Intelligence indicates that the U.S. is preparing additional military aid for several West African nations, with a particular focus on Ghana, Benin, and Côte d'Ivoire.

2- Deployment of special forces:

The Wall Street Journal has reported the arrival of U.S. special forces in West Africa, accompanied by the transfer of military aircraft to the region. In a parallel move, Washington has invested approximately $4 million to upgrade an airport in Benin, enhancing its capacity to accommodate American helicopters. The U.S. is also strengthening its cooperation with Côte d'Ivoire, where a contingent of American special forces has been stationed in Abidjan. Furthermore, negotiations are underway with Chad to facilitate the return of U.S. special forces to a base in N'Djamena.

3- Africom commander making more visits to Africa:

In recent months, General Michael Langley, the head of US Africa Command (Africom), has intensified his diplomatic efforts through multiple visits to West African nations. His itinerary has particularly focused on Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, and Benin. These frequent visits serve a dual purpose: they are integral to Washington's ongoing review of Africom's strategy in the region and underscore the strategic importance of West Africa in the U.S.'s broader policy on Africa. The heightened focus on West Africa was further emphasized by Secretary of State Antony Blinken's January tour of the region. 

Strategic Repositioning

The U.S. recent moves in West Africa reflect several significant indicators of a military repositioning:

1- Restructuring U.S. forces:

The Pentagon has tasked a team of 10 special forces personnel with evaluating how to re-distribute the 1,100 American troops previously stationed in Niger across three military sites and an airbase in Agadez. In line with this restructuring, Washington is now looking to deploy these forces in coastal West African nations, particularly Benin and Côte d'Ivoire. This move aligns with statements from Africom's commander, who indicated that the U.S. is working with regional allies in West Africa—especially Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, and Benin—to implement its plan to reposition forces previously based in Niger. Consequently, the drone base in Agadez, a key hub for AFRICOM operations in West Africa, is now under review as Washington seeks an alternative location.

2- Restoring counterterrorism and insurgency capabilities:

The U.S. aims to counter the growing influence of al-Qaeda and ISIS in the Sahel and West Africa, especially in light of the recent surge in terrorist activity by both groups. Since the U.S. withdrawal from its strategic base in Niger, its capacity to influence counterterrorism and insurgency efforts in the Sahel has significantly diminished. Therefore, repositioning American forces in West Africa may help Washington restore its capabilities and influence in combating terrorism and insurgencies in the Sahel region.

3- Engaging with the Sahel and Sahara:

Despite its current military repositioning, the U.S. is adopting a more comprehensive approach within its new African strategy. This approach aims to engage with all African nations, including those in the Sahel and Sahara region, where military coups have ousted pro-Western governments and installed anti-Western juntas. Africom's commander has indicated that the U.S. is reassessing its military cooperation with the Sahel nations, including the new Sahel Alliance, which comprises Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Following this reassessment, Washington will determine its relations with new partners in Africa.

In line with this broader strategy, the U.S. seeks to strengthen its relations with African countries. This strategic shift is evidenced by Washington's recent support for Africa's bid to secure two permanent seats on the U.N. Security Council. Furthermore, President Joe Biden is reportedly planning a visit to Angola in the coming days, which would mark the first visit by a sitting U.S. president to Sub-Saharan Africa since former president Barack Obama visited Kenya and Ethiopia in 2015.

4- Countering Russian and Chinese influence:

The U.S.'s current moves in West Africa are also driven by efforts to counter the expanding influence of Russia and China in the region. Africom's commander Michael E. Langley has accused Russia and China of leading a disinformation campaign in the Sahel to undermine U.S. influence in West and Central Africa, and Washington is reportedly working to combat this campaign.

There is growing American concern about China's increasing presence in West Africa. After a period of reduced involvement, China has renewed its activity in Africa, as evidenced by the ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in early September 2024. The forum emphasized China's competition with the West, particularly the U.S., in Africa, positioning Beijing as a more reliable partner for African nations, including those in West Africa.

Potential Consequences

As the U.S. ramps up its activities in West Africa, several potential consequences may arise:

1- New U.S. military bases:

In response to its diminishing influence in the Sahel, particularly following the withdrawal from Niger and Chad's suspension of American military operations at the Adji Kossei Air Base, Washington is actively bolstering its presence in West Africa. Western reports indicate that the U.S. is exploring the establishment of new military bases in the region. As part of this strategic shift, Africom commander Langley has conducted multiple visits to West African nations, reportedly engaging in discussions with African leaders on this matter. Furthermore, unconfirmed reports from July 2024 alluded to plans for a U.S. military base in the northwestern Ivorian town of Odienné.

2- Repeating the Sahel scenario:

Analysts caution that the expanding American military footprint in West Africa could inadvertently provide terrorist groups operating in the Sahel with a pretext to extend and intensify their activities in the region. These groups might achieve this by exploiting and amplifying anti-Western sentiment, using the increased military presence as a catalyst for internal mobilization and recruitment of new terrorist elements.

Such a scenario could potentially exacerbate internal polarization within West African countries, raising the specter of replicating the volatile situation witnessed in the Sahel. This replication might manifest in two ways: through military coups, although this is considered less likely, or through the rise of governments that prefer to align with China and Russia at the expense of their traditional Western relationships. Nigeria, in particular, could emerge as a prominent example of this shifting geopolitical trend.

3- Intensifying global rivalries:

Military cooperation has emerged as a pivotal arena in the escalating competition between the United States and China, particularly in Africa. As the U.S. strategically repositions its forces in West Africa and bolsters military ties with African nations, China is simultaneously intensifying its military collaborations across the continent, with a notable focus on West African countries. Beijing's commitment is evident in its ambitious plan to invest approximately $140 million in training 6,000 African military personnel. This initiative has propelled China to become the second-largest arms supplier to Africa, trailing only behind Russia.

Furthermore, China is adeptly cultivating long-term relationships with emerging African leaders, who are poised to assume control of military and political institutions in the future. This strategic approach aligns seamlessly with Beijing's 2022 Global Security Initiative (GSI), which aims to present an alternative security paradigm to the U.S.-led model. However, China's growing ambitions in the region are increasingly raising eyebrows in Washington, especially amidst speculation that Beijing is actively seeking to establish a permanent military base in West Africa. Such a development would mark China's second military outpost on the continent, following its existing base in Djibouti.

The prospect of a Chinese military base in West Africa is particularly alarming to the United States, as it would grant China military access to the eastern coast of the U.S. – a scenario that Washington perceives as a direct threat to its strategic interests. In response to this potential challenge, the U.S. has taken proactive measures, allocating $5 million to train special forces in Gabon. This targeted investment serves a dual purpose: to enhance regional security capabilities and to preemptively thwart China's efforts to establish a military foothold in the area. The intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China over military influence in West Africa underscores the region's growing geopolitical significance. 

In conclusion, the United States is adopting a new approach in Africa to address the setbacks resulting from its previous strategy, which led to diminished influence in the Sahel and Sahara region. To rectify this, Washington aims to reposition its forces in West Africa while reassessing Africom's strategy. This recalibration involves expanding the U.S. military presence in coastal West African nations while maintaining ties with the Sahel Alliance, thereby preserving American influence in the region, albeit at a higher cost. Simultaneously, the U.S. is focused on countering China's growing influence in Africa, a dynamic that could significantly impact the geopolitical landscape. This evolving situation has the potential to not only perpetuate but also escalate long-term polarization in the region.